Why are Snow Serpents going for so much $$$?

**HoodedCobraCommander788** · 08-29-2014

You have hit on my objection. The experiment isn't property controlled. Maybe it will prove something and maybe it won't. That's the purpose of publishing the results and the methodology in a peer-reviewed journal-- everyone can see if it was done properly and the results aren't contaminated by bias, improper sampling, or any number of other endogenous errors that could make any results worthless. In the meantime, collectors who would like this piece to fill a hole in their collections must wait until the manipulation is over. And those who aren't privy to the experiment and dare to pay the prevailing prices will see the value of their investment drop to pennies in a few months. That's a massive amount of power for one person to have, without any likely payoff at the end.

Originally Posted by code_name_flint

I think this is very interesting and I'm curious to see the results.

However I think you just contaminated your experiment. You told everyone what your doing and how much your currently willing to pay for them. My first reaction when I heard you were doing this was to go to ebay and bid you up. Not like the others you have said before because I would pay for them if I ended up winning. I don't have the money to throw around as much as you do but if I wanted to I could throw a small wrench into your plans.

Now that I've read your full story I'm not going to do it because my curiosity has taken over. Maybe just a few at 31 and 36 for my own amusement.

With all that being said even though I understand it now and am curious that's not to say one of the other collectors won't take the course of action I initially wanted to. There are plenty of collectors that have the capital you do and could throw a huge wrench in your plan. That would completely ruin your experiment. Have you thought about that at all when you decided to come public about all this?

**erichpersson** · 08-29-2014

Originally Posted by code_name_flint

I think this is very interesting and I'm curious to see the results.

However I think you just contaminated your experiment. You told everyone what your doing and how much your currently willing to pay for them. My first reaction when I heard you were doing this was to go to ebay and bid you up. Not like the others you have said before because I would pay for them if I ended up winning. I don't have the money to throw around as much as you do but if I wanted to I could throw a small wrench into your plans.

Now that I've read your full story I'm not going to do it because my curiosity has taken over. Maybe just a few at 31 and 36 for my own amusement.

With all that being said even though I understand it now and am curious that's not to say one of the other collectors won't take the course of action I initially wanted to. There are plenty of collectors that have the capital you do and could throw a huge wrench in your plan. That would completely ruin your experiment. Have you thought about that at all when you decided to come public about all this?

I appreciate the thought. I am counting on these interactions to do two things 1. Protect people from wrongly thinking 85 snow serpents are an investment vehicle. I get numerous inquires and many of the tones are hoping they will financially benefit from buying them right now. Nivea made it very clear I am going to liquidate them when finished. 2. I am counting on others to attempt price interference. This commonly happens with puts and calls. Financially speaking, what happens when a buyer buys an investment tool like a stock or even a snow serpent, their purchase price becomes their basis. As lower price sellers exit the market a new higher basis materializes and sets a new floor on pricing other the item. In the market I am interested in I would have to disclose my intent to purchase publically and wait three days before action. The price disruption you are speaking about is helpful as the buyers will win some auctions creating a floor and raising the price of the item.

So I guess I am saying if you have the means to participate, I am hoping that you do. But at the same time, don't come crying to me when I sell 300,000 of these guys (if I ever get 300,000) at dollar a piece when I am done!

**erichpersson** · 08-29-2014

Originally Posted by HoodedCobraCommander788

You have hit on my objection. The experiment isn't property controlled. Maybe it will prove something and maybe it won't. That's the purpose of publishing the results and the methodology in a peer-reviewed journal-- everyone can see if it was done properly and the results aren't contaminated by bias, improper sampling, or any number of other endogenous errors that could make any results worthless. In the meantime, collectors who would like this piece to fill a hole in their collections must wait until the manipulation is over. And those who aren't privy to the experiment and dare to pay the prevailing prices will see the value of their investment drop to pennies in a few months. That's a massive amount of power for one person to have, without any likely payoff at the end.

I understand your point of view. I am not doing this for peer review. I am hoping to learn for my own benefit, using my own resources and then hopefully going to apply my learning in a financial market. At the same time I will gladly post my learnings (at least what I think of as learnings here) for everyone to see when this is done. And at the end of the day, I will keep some snow serpents for myself and liquidate the rest!

**code_name_flint** · 08-29-2014

Originally Posted by erichpersson

I appreciate the thought. I am counting on these interactions to do two things 1. Protect people from wrongly thinking 85 snow serpents are an investment vehicle. I get numerous inquires and many of the tones are hoping they will financially benefit from buying them right now. Nivea made it very clear I am going to liquidate them when finished. 2. I am counting on others to attempt price interference. This commonly happens with puts and calls. Financially speaking, what happens when a buyer buys an investment tool like a stock or even a snow serpent, their purchase price becomes their basis. As lower price sellers exit the market a new higher basis materializes and sets a new floor on pricing other the item. In the market I am interested in I would have to disclose my intent to purchase publically and wait three days before action. The price disruption you are speaking about is helpful as the buyers will win some auctions creating a floor and raising the price of the item.

So I guess I am saying if you have the means to participate, I am hoping that you do. But at the same time, don't come crying to me when I sell 300,000 of these guys (if I ever get 300,000) at dollar a piece when I am done!

I purchase Snow Serpents every time they cross my path. They are for my collection so you fluctuating prices doesn't really have an effect on me.

I don't mean this as an insult but I don't think you will ever make it to 200,000 unless you start paying crazy prices for them. You consider all the ones that probably ended up in a land fill and how many of these are in private collections?

Also for instance I have the market almost cornered in my area for vintage troop builders. I know all of the toy store owners and resellers in the area. Since I'm known as one of the larger collectors in the area a lot of the time I get first dibs on stuff when lots are bought. Just in the last month I've purchased 5 or 6 Snow Serpents that never hit a market. I can't be the only one in the country that has a similar set up to this.

If you do make it however I will applaud you good sir.

**erichpersson** · 08-29-2014

Originally Posted by code_name_flint

I purchase Snow Serpents every time they cross my path. They are for my collection so you fluctuating prices doesn't really have an effect on me.

I don't mean this as an insult but I don't think you will ever make it to 200,000 unless you start paying crazy prices for them. You consider all the ones that probably ended up in a land fill and how many of these are in private collections?

Also for instance I have the market almost cornered in my area for vintage troop builders. I know all of the toy store owners and resellers in the area. Since I'm known as one of the larger collectors in the area a lot of the time I get first dibs on stuff when lots are bought. Just in the last month I've purchased 5 or 6 Snow Serpents that never hit a market. I can't be the only one in the country that has a similar set up to this.

If you do make it however I will applaud you good sir.

There are many buyers as yourself with various contacts and purchase power. You are absolutely crucial to what I am working on. A publically traded stock typically has three types of owners, the first is the majority holder who owns or runs the company. They can only sell their stock once, and which point they no longer own the company. As a result those shares are known as private blocks and do not trade frequently. The second type is an institutional investor, Think Goldman Sachs or Morgan Stanley. They are professional investors who typically hold from one to ten years depending on the growth trajectory and maturity of the business enterprise. The third kind are individual buyers, they buy and sell frequently and typically make up around 20% of the total stock....they usually have the least amount of information purchase in very small quantities and are most like a buyer on ebay...you sound like the second type of buyer....without the snow serpent market having these three types of buyers I wouldn't be able to utilize them for what I am attempting to better understand....since only 20% of the snow serpents are probably trading hands, price fluctuation has and will occur...the ones that have been lost or thrown away are the base and most similar to the first type of stock owner since they won't change hands....so thank you for being a buyer, and participating in this process!

**code_name_flint** · 08-29-2014

Originally Posted by erichpersson

There are many buyers as yourself with various contacts and purchase power. You are absolutely crucial to what I am working on. A publically traded stock typically has three types of owners, the first is the majority holder who owns or runs the company. They can only sell their stock once, and which point they no longer own the company. As a result those shares are known as private blocks and do not trade frequently. The second type is an institutional investor, Think Goldman Sachs or Morgan Stanley. They are professional investors who typically hold from one to ten years depending on the growth trajectory and maturity of the business enterprise. The third kind are individual buyers, they buy and sell frequently and typically make up around 20% of the total stock....they usually have the least amount of information purchase in very small quantities and are most like a buyer on ebay...you sound like the second type of buyer....without the snow serpent market having these three types of buyers I wouldn't be able to utilize them for what I am attempting to better understand....since only 20% of the snow serpents are probably trading hands, price fluctuation has and will occur...the ones that have been lost or thrown away are the base and most similar to the first type of stock owner since they won't change hands....so thank you for being a buyer, and participating in this process!

Your logic is sound and I'm definitely following you. However I think your numbers are off. My prediction is you will plateau around 100,000 Snow Serpents. Unless you can find a way to convince people like me to change from buyers to sellers.

You should post progress as you go. It would be interesting to see. Either a check up monthly in here or a new thread.

**erichpersson** · 08-29-2014

Originally Posted by code_name_flint

Your logic is sound and I'm definitely following you. However I think your numbers are off. My prediction is you will plateau around 100,000 Snow Serpents. Unless you can find a way to convince people like me to change from buyers to sellers.

You should post progress as you go. It would be interesting to see. Either a check up monthly in here or a new thread.

I agree that 300, 000 is a stretch....I am guessing there is 300k to 500k left....the "float" market is all I really need to understand at the end of the day....and as that dries up this experiment ends ... hope that makes sense